There is a rich history of state collapse following wars, revolutions, system breakdowns, economic crises, and other epochal events. Given Russia’s vast expanse, long history of restive regions, and large non-Russian ethnicities-all a result of centuries of imperial conquest-the one scenario that deserves much more attention is a disintegration of centralized control and breakup of the federation. If it does not, the map of Eurasia could look very different. If Russia survives this turmoil, it’s likely to become a weak client state of China. In turn, a weakened regime, in conjunction with a malfunctioning economy, will invite disgruntled Russians to take to the streets, perhaps even with arms, and encourage some of the non-Russian political units comprising the Russian Federation to opt for greater self-rule leading candidates include Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Dagestan, and Sakha.
We don’t know who will win, but we can confidently predict that the power struggle will weaken the regime and distract Russia from what remains of its war effort. Most likely is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s departure from office, followed by a vicious power struggle among the extreme right-wing nationalists who want to continue the war effort and destroy the existing political hierarchy, authoritarian conservatives who have a stake in the system, and a resurgent semi-democratic movement committed to ending the war and reforming Russia. There are various scenarios for what might happen in Russia after defeat in Ukraine becomes even clearer. Regardless of whether this will be good or bad for the West, it’s an outcome policymakers should prepare for. In fact, the combination of a failed war abroad and a brittle, strained system at home is increasing the likelihood of some sort of implosion with every passing day. It is a dangerous lack of imagination, considering the potential for Russia’s collapse and disintegration. What’s stunning after almost a year of war, therefore, is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely.
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